Remember in the nine-province runs there's variance based on the other 8 provinces. In Trollman's run above, Arco's (order) initial advantage over Pan (luck) is too low, so Pan's initial provinces are better. Even so, it looks like only a 5% advantage so they're very close in outcome after adjustments. So far it's looking like luck is overall coming out better, although the advantage is slight and the startup and variability issues are important and difficult to catch in these tests.
Forrest's run points out a problem with these test runs - misfortunate invasions. Just "next turning" overstates their effect, because you'd actually send an army out to recover it. But, that's a big pain, and managing the reconquest armies makes it harder to make different nations comparable. You'd need similar cost armies at some standard level - probably with similar resource costs as otherwise "same gold" is a very different power level.
I think the money quote is:
Quote:
Sheap said:Sure, order/prod is probably better overall but not so much so that everyone will take order 3/misfortune 2 all the time like in dom2.
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