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I don't really understand what Graeme is saying about attacks concentrated on the "most survivable unit" in a square. The closest thing to that I can think of is that attacks are targeted randomly until everyone has died except the toughest unit, then the toughest unit is hit for the remainder of the round. Which means that the toughest unit receives most of the attacks because he is left after everyone else has died and there is no one else for the enemies to hit.

This hardly counts as needing to survive 3:1 odds. Even if both your other friendly troops are killed with a single attack each, the chaff factor lowers your odds to at worst 2:1, and that is only if the enemy troops are capable of killing yours very easily. In reality most of the time the difference in infantry will not be so dramatic (your troops might even be better than the enemy) and the friendly infantry will significantly increase the survivability of the commander.