Yeah i agree with all those points of course, but when you consider a choice you might start with a simple model i guess.
Anyway i really do think the value of picking growth increases with the size and expected lenght of the game, so this should be the optimal type of game to pick growth in.
You might add a few more in fact to the long list of considerations
1. growth gives added supply
2. A large chunk of your nation might have been conquered from dead/dying nations by turn 50.
3. The fact that time works for you not against you allows you to be peaceful if you want
Additionally it might be intresting to know that the percentage difference between growth 3 and death 3 becomes larger if you pick turmoil as well (and less if you pick order).