[danm]

wouldnt having the 2 bodyguards increse the odds of that square being initially chosen as a target x3 though?

you'd have to add in the odds of the mage getting hit due to his bodyguards being "missed"

assumed targetting process:
pick target unit. (1x mage +2x guards)
determine Target square.
determine square actually hit. (assume good accuracy)
determine unit hit in that square (if any -- guards "pay back" here 1/3 chance of picking mage).
determine if that unit IS hit.
determine damage.

I think it comes out near a wash, but the bodyguards may be slightly counterproductive.