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zakna said:
Id vote for the 33% or more hold for 5 turn or more 
But I'm not sure about all the hold province thing. Make more sense to me to be the last pretender standing to claim godhood.
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The problem with that is you'd reach a point where one player was obviously going to win, but he'd still have to hunt down the last survivors.
If I were one of the fugitives I'd want to concede because it would be boring, and I'd want to move on to a new game where I might have a chance.
If I were the winner I'd be just as bored, and hoping that people would concede so I'd have more time to put into a new, freshly challenging game.
If you're concerned that a quicker game like that means that the late game gets abbreviated (meaning the highest level spells never get researched and longterm strategies don't come to full fruition) then a big map with 22 players is more appropriate. I'd wager that with one of the bigger maps, even at 33% province victory, some players would get to see the fruits of their long term planning.