[Jazzepi]

Your provinces can revolt against you, which is a factor of unrest I believe and has nothing to do with luck. In which case I think the province is left neutral, but empty of defenders regardless of province defense.

Or your provinces can be invaded by barbarians/heros/knights/necromancers (I'm sure there are a bunch I'm missing) in which case those forces attack the PD and any patrolling forces. If they win, then the province goes neutral and they sit in that province until kicked out.

Luck scales cause the invasions. Bad luck -3 means you are more likely to have events in general, and of those events they are more likely to be bad. Turmoil also helps determines the size of the attacking forces (I've seen 120 force barbarian hordes attack from turmoil 3) during unlucky events.

Another thing to note is that if you have dominion in a province you get all the good and bad effects. If you own a province, but do not have dominion in it, you only get the negative effects of the scales there. So you might own a province that has Order 3 misfortune 3, but have no dominion in it. Then that province counts as misfortune 3 only.

Jazzepi