[Wyatt Hebert]

You say the numbers lie. Very well, they may. However, do you even understand the information assumed by the numbers? For example, what is the probability that it will take as few as 3 castings (Given it has a 4% chance each time)? Exactly 3 castings is .96*.96*.04. Exactly 2 castings would be .96*.04, and Exactly 1 casting is .04, by definition. This leads to a probability of 11.52%.

Now, _assuming that 3 castings will penetrate 50% of the time_, the actual probability of failure is x^3=0.5, or ~79%. This gives the chance of success at 21%. If this is accurately the chance of success, then the game code does have issues.

I guess the other consideration is the path combination required to cast VotD. I _think_ that only MA Ermor has the requisite paths innately (i.e. giving the cost information is correct), though I could easily be mistaken on that score. The other check is that, possibly, it's overpowered in Ermor's case. Granted, from what is apparently a subtext of this message, Ermor has the capability to not only use double blessed Shadow Vestals AND VotD. Now, is THIS overpowered, and, if so, what could be done to fix the combo without changing VotD.

Oh, and please note that I _estimated_ nothing. I simply applied binomial statistics. _Given_ a 4% success rate, there is a probability slightly higher than 50% that the first 16 trials will fail. Stated slightly differently, what is the probability of rolling <49 on a d50 16 times in a row? ~50%. If the success rate is wrong, of course the result will be wrong. That's why I did the secondary calculation assuming your case was an average one. I doubt your case was average, however. I think the Ermorian player got lucky with a roll at some point. ~21% chance of success is to hit someone with, I believe, only 2-3 points higher than you. That would, I believe, imply something on the order of +12 Penetration, which is nigh impossible that early in a game.

Let's figure out how the numbers fall out, and then we'll start worrying. If astral spells have a bonus to penetration overland, that needs to be verified and fixed, unless that is working as intended. Honestly, VotD might require one higher in one of its two paths, and that probably would help. On the other hand, I think some of the stuff in the next patch is Shadow Vestal being reduced, so that might help this kind of situation, too.

Let's look at the issue holistically, rather than the specific cause of death. Can we agree on that?

Wyatt Hebert

P.S. I am planning, time-allowing, to run a test scenario with VotD. Ermor vs. Ulm, and I will be paying close attention to Penetration vs. MR score each time. Combat occurs before dominion change, and spells happen before Combat, so the numbers I read on the turn should be the numbers used in the calculation, correct?