[Lazy_Perfectionist]

Good point about the defense penalty. Well, I can increase my defense further, but can't rely on getting off more than one spell before the Horror's at my feet.

Ironskin's useless with the Armor Penetration/Piercing. Mistform is useless. Earthpower - I'm not likely to have a long battle. That leaves Mirror Image, which I'm unfortunately not quite strong enough in to depend on.

Still, I can count on my defense preventing at least half of the first wave of attacks, barring unusually bad luck. And even with the last attack (though unluck is risky), I'll have at least a 54% chance of not being hit.