Re: Hidden in Snow
Zath: I, also, believe you are looking at it narrowly. Without the extra experience of the others, I will restrict my comments to things I know I'm working with.
First of all, sticking 2E on KO's pretender is not always the optimal choice. If it's a rainbow pretender, it would be fine, but if Earth magic was that critical to your gameplan, you should have put that on in the first place. Also, working on that plan, if it's a combat pretender, you have to tie up your pretender to use it for non-combat work.
Second of all, your statistics, while accurate as stated, can be considered misleading. The possible results of the spell, assuming even probabilities, using your focus, are as follows:
33% No mage.
33% 1 Mage (12.5% 0E, 37.5% 1E, 37.5% 2E, 12.5% 3E)
33% 2 Mages (Each at probabilities above).
So, what are the chances per cast of getting a 2E+ mage. Well, it would be 33.3%+16.7%, or 50%, as stated.* Very good. Now, the question: What's this mean? You have a 50% chance, per casting, of getting a 2E+ mage. However, simply stated that way, you ignore the other point. The other option is simply not getting a 2E+ mage, NOT getting no mage or a useless mage.
PvK's point is that there are some people who have no problems taking risks. Also, some of the alternatives provided take more time. Claymen may well be more effective, in general. However, they either take (1) more mage time, or (2) a rather high level caster in Water (which typically means a lot of investment or your pretender). Also note that there is better than a 50% chance, I believe, of getting a mage who can cast Claymen. Possibly the best use of it is when you are sieged, and gambling on getting enough help to not lose the castle. Lack of time can do that.
Wyatt Hebert
* I believe the probability is slightly lower than 50%, actually. Probability of getting at least one mage of 2E+ is 0% (No mage generated)+ 33% (One mage generated) * 50% (getting 2E+)+33% (two mages generated)*75% (at least one of the two mages has 2E+)=41.667%, or less than 50%.
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