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Baalz said:
I don't think this is quite right. From what I remember about statistics the logic is like this. If you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads every time, what is the chance it'll come up heads the next time you toss it? Answer: 50% because the coin has no memory.
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This isn't like a coin flip though. It's more like for every province you have three cups (actually, nine) and one pea (actually, zero to four) under one of the cups. You want to find the peas. You can turn up one cup at a time. For a province where you haven't searched yet, that's three cups and lifting one of them is a 33% chance of finding the pea. If you already lifted one of them and did not find the pea, then you'll have a 50% chance of finding the pea if you try again for that province. This is better than trying another province where you only have a 33% chance of finding one.
This is, of course, a very simple model which isn't exactly like what we have in the game, so don't take it literally.