Okay, I think Baalz has trouble with the reverse scenario than I described: If I already found something, how big is the chance I'll continue to find something if I search more?
Quote:
Baalz said:
The thing is, from a statistical standpoint the paths are completely independent, if you search a province for astral it does not effect your chances of finding an earth site there regardless of whether you uncover an astral one. This is because what you really care about is "what is the chances a given province has at least one earth site?" which is not effected by the existence of astral sites - its 0.5 / 8. (disregarding the small chance that there are 4 non-earth sites, which complicates the math and doesn't change the chances too much)
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Those things are not independent. For every site searching, there are two things that come into the equation: One, how many sites there are in the province, two, how many you found already. If there are two sites in a province and you already found two, then you can search all you want but that won't make a new site pop up. That's because those sites are rolled for before the game starts. If they'd be rolled for when the site search is being made, you would be correct.