[thejeff]

Ok, without actually checking the numbers I followed you up through the 16.33% chance of an earth site.

For the astral search:
Why (1-P(site is not Earth))? Isn't that the same as the chance that the site is Earth? Where does the chance that the site is astral come in?

Nor do I see where you get the 8.76% if you have searched for an earth site.

If there isn't an earth site, but you've searched for one, how does that change the probability of finding an Astral site?