[Evilhomer]

I am not sure we understand each other here I must say. I will give you an example:

The same hypergeometric distribution GIVEN that we have 4 sites in that province would be:

0 - 0.0
1 - 0.0
2 - 0.0
3 - 0.0
4 - 1.0

In the same way the distribution you gave would change GIVEN that we have atleast 1 site, so using this:

0 - 0.1296
1 - 0.3456
2 - 0.3456
3 - 0.1536
4 - 0.0256

just cannot be accurate for the second calculation (when we know we have atleast 1 site). Maybe I misunderstood you somewhere along the way, a bit to tired to go into detailed math analysis.