[thejeff]

EvilHomer: I'm not sure that's right. or I'm misunderstanding you.

Take the extreme case: There are 3 known sites in a province.
One remaining maybe: so 40% chance there is yet another site. Is that right?
Is it independent of how much searching you've done?
Obviously with all paths searched the chance is 0%. Is it still 40% with only 1 path left?

The probabilities should change, since 0, 1 and 2 are now at 0%, but not to 60/40. I think it's because they're not ordered?