I'm counting events where all the provinces are Turmoil3-Luck3. If you're counting total events in a real game, you'll get different numbers, depending on how fast your dominion and scales spread. Let me rephrase that ... you'll get more accurate numbers.
Later in the game your scales should have stabilized, but if you invade enemy dominion, then you'll get bad events in those provinces while waiting for your scales to catch up.