[Baalz]

If you take, as suggested, an awake rainbow pretender and spend the first several turns researching you hit bonds of fire and magma bolts very quickly, and soul slay isn't really much better than mind burn against Ulmish infantry - I don't think that would have made any difference at all. I actually did use astrologers in the test, just mistyped.

As to the dragon, that's really kind of a different question, we were talking about elephants. A dragon sitting on your cap on turn 4 is quite a different ball of wax and is a challenge for many nations outside of whatever is following it up. Lets give this a try though...you've got an awake rainbow mage and in a total surprise a dom-10 dragon plops down and takes out all the PD in your capital on turn 4. I'll go ahead and make some assumptions: you've got a 4 strength dominion on your cap (you've had a pretender sitting there plus a temple plus the capital spread for 4 turns), you've got 3 master smiths, and you've got one expansion army with an arbalest squad outside your capital as well as a handful of infantry, you've also been researching thaumaturgy to pick up bonds of fire.

Depending on what the research actually is on your pretender, stall for a turn or two until you hit thaum-2. In the mean time your expansion army grabs a few more provinces (make sure you cut off all retreat routes for the dragon) and you try to find barbarians, or lizards, or any low resource/high damage indies to recruit (bonus, you'll probably take them easily with your arbalests) or mercenaries. A couple turns after the dragon appeared you attack with whatever you've been able to scrape up - which obviously will vary quite a bit, but you open the fight with your pretender cursing the dragon then casting berserkers a couple times on your biggest weapon carrying dudes, while your three smiths spam bonds of fire. Your prophet casts a bunch of sermons of courage and your expansion forces probably have a star or two so they've got fairly good moral and can hopefully take a swing or two despite the awe even without the berserk. The dragon is in significant enemy dominion with the accompanying penalties, is held for awhile with no real defense or chance to cause damage or make fear rolls, is cursed, and is being hacked at by berserk battleaxes (dare I hope you had a couple black knights?) who ignore his awe as well as being focussed on by arbalests at presumably short range. After the berserkers you can have your pretender cast frighten X 2. Dragon, taking some damage, is in enemy dominion, hit with 2 15 fear attacks and facing the extra moral check of lone combatants will route and die. Depending on how many arbalests and your actual mix of troops you might do better to skip the berserkers and just do frighten X4.

Now, this set you back a couple turns, but your enemy lost his pretender and you're hardly crippled.

Heck though, seems like the dragon would potentially have trouble just taking out the capital PD. Facing 25 arbalests in enemy dominion...14 AP damage focussed on a single guy with no shield or buffs and ignoring awe...seems like he'd need to win before they reloaded and fired at close range to have a chance.