[Twan]

With easy research Ulm using the awake great sage has evocation 3 + thaum 2 in turn 6 (bonds of fire, iron darts or magma bolts for the priest smiths, and the great sage can use berserkers to have some guys ignoring the dragon awe).

If Ulm turtle in his capitol and continue researchs up to turn 9 (evocation 3 + alteration 2 + thaum 3) the priest smiths can use earth meld to slow the elephants when the great sage uses spells like rage or panic.

Not to say that it's sufficient to have 100% chances to stop a rush, but I think it's far to be a totally hopeless situation.

Especially if the attack happens a little later (like it's far more probable considering Arco has to find Ulm capital first and won't risk elephants against knights without some alteration researched for body ethearal ; say they start to attack around turn 12-13 and the big battle happen in turn 16) Ulm may have conjuration 3/ alteration 2/ thaumaturgy 3 / evocation 5/ construction 4 (so a great sage with earth boots able to kill some elephants or an unlucky dragon with gifts from heaven ; and smiths with earth power) when Arco (with magic 1) has thaum 5 / alt 4 and a level 2 in another school.

(test made just counting capitol researchers, didn't built castles, just made priest smiths and astrologers, and even the dragon was set to research, some castles build early can make Arco closer in research -if they build the same number-, but I think it's hard to afford several castles + elephants, so Ulm would probably have more forts)