[Endoperez]

I counted that there was 30/36 chance of an Atlantian mage dying, personally. That included victories for Arcos as well as ties (both die).

Arcos (S4) - Atlantis (S2) wins
1 vs 1, 2
2 vs 1, 2, 3,
3 vs 1, 2, 3, 4,
4 vs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
5 vs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
6 vs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

or 26 chances out of 36 (6*6).

Atlantis ties:
1 vs 3, 2 vs 4, 3 vs 5, 4 vs 6

or 4 times out of 36.

Ends up as 30/36 or 5/6 chance of Atlantian mages dying, for each Duel. I think that'd be (1/6)^3 or 1/216 or so chance of three mages not dying, out of three.