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				VedalkenBear said: 
I can see if I can come up with an algorithm.  Don't ask me to code it, though.  
			
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 Who needs an algorithm for this??  I wouldn't bother to write one!  Making it fast is asking for bugs and one shouldn't calculate what one can look up anyway.
Search level 4 or sites found 4 = skip.
We have 0-3 sites found, a few terrain types, the previous search level (0-3) and the path.  Simply store all the precalculated values.  I don't think it's more than 10k of data.
The only troublesome cases are the multiple-search spells.  My impression is that simply summing the probabilities for all paths they cover would produce an appropriate ranking even though the probability number itself is obviously way wrong.