Yes, just as I said. Having more territory, Sauromatian empire can safely invest more into each fight than any one other country. Taken together, though...
As for Tien Chi 'finishing' Ulm, it isn't quite as close as some may think..
In any case, Tien Chi will probably HAVE to attack Sauromatia soon, though Sauromatia doesn't have to attack Tien Chi - it can win without fighting them at all!
Though it may require some surprise attack on those Giboleths who think they are so unbeatable... or just Dominion-killing them.
To Abysia:
Unfortunately, your winning in diplomacy becomes meaningless as soon as you are crushed with brute force. That's one of reasons I said that attacking before alliance was formed was probably your mistake - Tien Chi, for example, formed an alliance before attacking me...