To Shigure:
Yes, precisely - he will win without needing to fight Tien Chi. Unless Tien Chi has a plan how to steal from him most capitals quickly enough, that is. But I don't think such can work - certainly not in Calum's case for their flyers can hold besieging forces for very long & I suppose that Saur's know how to guard their citadels.
About your peace with Caelum - I don't think so. You, as I remember, also caused goodly losses to Sauromatia before your fall - and you could cause more if you had Caelum's resources for yourself by the time. It may have been otherwise if they had actually helped you when you were attacked, but such didn't occur.
To Claire:
I can't state loss of your avatar as a mistake - unless it was by mistakenly attacking too strong enemy, that is. In any case, it was tactical, not strategic mistake. I understand your reasoning about alliances & I've already said that negotiations could take too long also. I still think that coordinated actions would have more chances of downing the said beast..
To Renojustin:
One might think that you could by now end your demagogy..
By now all could see that your reasonings are false & you calling names doesn't help any. Also, your resources already do allow you to drop any pretense and still win by brute force.
