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secretperson said:
Interesting! Thanks for the responses!
It's been wayyyy too long since high school statistics... How would this look statistically?
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It's binomial distribution. Look up the correct row from Pascal's triangle. So, for example, if you have three fortune tellers (5) in a province, the chance that at least one of them prevents an event is:
0.05^3 + 3 * 0.05^2 * 0.95 + 3 * 0.05 * 0.95^2 = 14.2625%
Or, if you prefer the easy way, its:
1 - (1 - 0.05)^3
K.