Thread: Fortune teller
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Old June 9th, 2008, 07:16 AM

Kaljamaha Kaljamaha is offline
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Default Re: Fortune teller

Quote:
secretperson said:
Interesting! Thanks for the responses!

It's been wayyyy too long since high school statistics... How would this look statistically?
It's binomial distribution. Look up the correct row from Pascal's triangle. So, for example, if you have three fortune tellers (5) in a province, the chance that at least one of them prevents an event is:

0.05^3 + 3 * 0.05^2 * 0.95 + 3 * 0.05 * 0.95^2 = 14.2625%

Or, if you prefer the easy way, its:

1 - (1 - 0.05)^3


K.
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