[PvK]

Ok, so I ran a test game as LA C'tis with Turmoil-3, Unluck-3, Growth-2, Heat-3, Prod-3, Magic-3, just staying in my home capital, and here's what happened.

All went well enough until brigands started hiding out in the province, which turned up the unrest, and then lots of events started wiping out or driving away my population, cursing my pretender and troops, causing my income to vanish, etc. Two barbarian hordes tried to take my province but were defeated by my provincial defense force. I tried lowering taxes and patrolling, but my economy collapsed and my population plummeted.

Finally, in the last month of year 2, an earthquake hit and trogs swarmed out and seiged my castle.

The provinces graph DOES go down when a province is seiged.

However, I had no income and no lab and no way to pay to rebuild it, or to recruit troops, for many months before that happened, due to having only one province and unluck/turmoil/unrest/brigands in my capital. I have 4910 population left in my capital, no temple, no lab. Unrest is 94, gold income is 2 with tax at 50%. I do happen to have a large undead army which I could use to break out with, but not every nation would have any such thing.