On turn 42 the contenders all have 40 plus provinces, though with the Forge up, and a tremendous lead in research, LA Agartha is the race to beat. And likely the easiest path to 15 with easy access to the water nations, which, unlike the last Big Game, seem to be vulnerable.
But the knocking on the door races are, drum roll
Niefel, MA and LA Marignon, Helheim, LA Caelum, and Bandar Log.
Judge for yourself. the numbers do not lie:
http://www.llamaserver.net/showScore...game=KingMaker