Quote:
Originally Posted by Omnirizon
What you are pointing out here is what actually makes global warming theory so amazing from within the scientific community. *snip*
What makes this even more amazing is that science is actually moving in opposition to state interests in extending global warming.
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You're right, that is kind of weird, and there probably is more to it than Kuhnianisms. I can think of a couple more factors that might be contributing: one is that there are state actors (Maldive islands) who actually have an incentive to push the fear of warming-driven disaster scenarios (which requires warming). More importantly, there's an unexplained datum, which is the warming trend of the last century. Ignatz Semmelweiss' problem was that he could show a causative link empirically (basic hygiene reduces iatrogenic childbed fever dramatically), but he had no theory to explain the causation. Only after germ theory was invented did his data gain widespread credibility. In theory science is about understanding the universe, which sometimes means understanding that you don't understand it; in practice people like to have explanations even if they're wrong. The GCMs climatologists use aren't high-quality models, but they can be tweaked to explain away the puzzling recent warming trend. Acknowledging the actual uncertainty in the system is too difficult, especially if that threatens your livelihood. Better to keep on studying and publishing on GCMs, even if they don't correspond to reality.
Feynman says scientific honesty is much harder than regular honesty. It takes a certain amount of brutality to say to yourself that the field you're studying really isn't going anywhere, in which case you'll probably leave. Therefore, it makes sense to pay attention to cross-disciplinary debates. Here's a link to an issue of APS Physics featuring debate on global change:
http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newslet...0807/index.cfm.
-Max