[Baalz]

Lord knows I'll take turmoil/luck sometimes, but this is not the time to do it. Your initial expansion is going to be average because of the speed your troops are produced, you have to get your second and third castle up very quickly. Getting those castles up a couple turns earlier makes a big difference in the number of indies you're able to grab before they're all taken, which largely sets the stage for how your initial interaction with your neighbors is going to be. Being below average puts you in the prey bucket for the initial tilt, and by and large turmoil vs order is that margin for Ulm.