[Staggerwing]

Interesting idea. One also wonder how things would have played
out in the Dutch East Indies. I suspect that Japan would have
placed even greater emphasis on securing the 'Southern Resource Area'
before it would be forced into a shooting war with the USA.
It is worth contemplating that an invasion of Northern Australia
would have been even more likely also. IIRC a big part of the
Japanese long term strategy was to grab as much territory as it could and
then engage the USN in a series of naval battles
that favored the IJN so as to demoralize the USA into settling for an armistice
that would see Japan keeping most (if not all) of what
it had taken control of. Faced with a USN that was mobilizing before
the IJN was ready there might have been a greater attempt at land grab
while there was still time.