[archaeolept]

confirmed. nothing affects your duel chances other than your base astral level.

The only question, I think, is whether paths lost due to some changeshape count or not... ie if you took an astral 2 dragon, in dragon form it would have zero astral - can it be mind dueled? and, if so, what level of astral does it have? Perhaps there is a similar issue for mute or feeblemind - I think that the level is your current showing one (ie. you have no astral if feebleminded), but I am not sure of this and have not tested.