Re: diplomacy
I don't know what all counts as a declaration of war for the AI, but the AI will always send a message if it didn't consider being attacked by / at war with the player already.
The AI does consider income of the nations and the border provinces of the player for attacks to seize land, there are some other cases where it does ponder about it as well. If it actually does attack upon the thought of doing so is based on the type of AI.
Starting from turn 40, all AIs will declare war in case the possibility comes up. Before that, a defensive AI is highly unlikely to start war itself, the aggressive one always will. The normal one has a chance in % equal to the turn number.
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