[Dragar]

While I have to admit that it is a while since I completed my finance and engineering studies, and haven't picked up a maths textbook in quite some years, I have undertaken a fair amount of risk analysis in the past few years, performing reliability and availability modelling for offshore gas facilities. While it is true that probability and statitics aren't the same thing, per se, they are very closely linked. The 79% chance is a probability*, and 80% of all statistics being made up says that there is an 80% chance that any average individual statistical measure has been made up. Very much the same thing

* there is a large and one would think inherently false assumption in the derivation of there being a 79% chance of someone not showing up - it assumes the actions of all participants are independent, whereas with such a group of people in a community this small and friendly that is very unlikely to be the case - surely if I hadn't submitted a rpetender near closing I would be reminded/encouraged/coerced by a player in this game I am on friendly terms or in another game with?