[Imp]

The video was an arty strike area about 3 times the size of the tank & yes it was an old one blowing up an Abrams for a test is probably expensive. Thats why I stated if lands near the area covered is not that much greater than a standard arty shell.
I will trust you on the specs the lower one would certainly strugle but the 130 if the tank was in the cloud would stand a good chance of being destroyed or damaged if hit anywhere but the front aspect. Even those Swedish mortar shells look pretty good vs APCs. In game how often do they kill late tanks if hit a platoon might kill one perhaps damage another. The game does not model damage but I would think sensitive systems like TI targeting would stand a good chance of not surviving. I use them mainly to suppress armour before my tanks strike as often only MGs fire back. Also against light vehicles like IFVs & ATGMs which I class as their major targets.
I am not saying you are wrong if those are the figures then perhaps a reduction is required but not as low as you have set because.
Game already determines if hits or misses if hits you can assume multiple strikes so the chance of hitting a soft spot goes up. Model this by increasing effect slightly & perhaps if someone is willing to do some research have more than the 2 generic settings used by most units.