[Dragar]

Definitely very unlucky, slight comments on risk assessment:

Am pretty sure failed attacks still reduce your defence.. so the chance of getting past your defence is very high for the later attackers, ignoring ethereal/fear/awe

Did you have any fatigue?

Lastly, chance of improbable failure MP >>> chance of improbable failure SP


Lastly for real - why did a retreat make your pretender die? Why didn't you just return to home province if routing?