Thread: Russian Tanks
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Old August 2nd, 2009, 01:10 PM

c_of_red c_of_red is offline
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Default Re: Russian Tanks

"so other NATO states, (all NATO states except UK/US) had no interests in that region"

Factually inaccurate, sir. The Russian willingness to use gas supplies for political leverage has made a trans Caucasus pipeline a potential threat to Russian plans for expansion. Look at some of the propose routes and notice where the Russian have set up shop. So now the pipelines will be laid across Iran, Iraq and Turkey. Russia is practicing 18th century politics, with 'spheres of influence and power projection.
Only this ain't the 19th century. ICBM's don't really care about the little mudhole countries the cross on their way to a target. Right now, few Western nations have ICBM's. ANY NATO country has the technology to build ICBM's and the nuclear warhead to go on one. They don't because for the last several decades, they have relied on the USA to spend the money to protect them. That will change if it looks like the USA WON'T protect them. Evidence is that the USA will not honor it's commitments.
Now if NATO was operating under 19th century political rules, their response to the Russian rape of Georgia would be to establish the Kurds that live in Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran as a Nation. That would guarantee European access to the gas supplies Europe needs.
It would really get everyone's panties in a wad, but there isn't much that any of those nations could do about it. The ONLY one that can fight their way out of a paper bag is Turkey. If faced with a trade between giving up a small part of their land (<10% IIRC) and getting rid of a bunch or unruly citizens in exchange for full EU membership, what do you suppose the Turks would do?
If Biden is POTUS by then (very likly) then there will be no objection from the USA, since this idea is Biden's in the first place. Back in'04, Joe wanted to divide Iraq in 3 and knock off chunks of Iran and Syria to create a new Kurdish nation. Biden would be the most aggressive foreign policy President since Teddy.

So long term, the Russians have created an incentive for the Non-nuclear states of NATO to go nuclear. They have served notice to the mudholiestans to buy beg borrow or steal weapons to fight future Russian incursions with. They have made it clear to the EU that having a Russian paw around the Eu's throat is an essential part of Russian foreign policy.

Those are some of the reasons why long term, the rape of Georgia is a disaster for Russia.
Unless, of course, you think having some poor country whose only noteworthy export is wine and dictators under your thumb is worth seeing Poland and Germany build nuclear weapons. Nothing like Poland having 50 ICBM's with 400 kiloton warheads to give "pootie" an ulcer.