[Amorphous]

Originally Posted by Squirrelloid

Ok, having just played 15-20 LA Ulm games through turn 12 with C3, it always dropped to C2 by summer. *Always*. I won't comment on the spread of cold, because my dominion was generally low (4-5).

And how long did it stay there?
As mentioned by vfb, cold is a bit safer than heat through the first year. As far as I can tell, the likelihood for temperature change is influenced by dominion level and difference to surrounding provinces as well as season, which means that a low dominion, extreme cold temperature is rather likely to change during the first summer.
I ran half a dozen games with LA ULM cold 3, dominion 5 and the temperature does tend to rise during summer, but in none of those games did I have less than cold 3 for more than 5 of the first 12 months. Having a higher temperature 3 months were just as common as having it 5. (For reference, 5 months at cold 2 and 7 at cold 3 means an average gold cut of about 13% per month for a temperature neutral nation, 3 months an average of 13.75%. There is, however, the possibility to have the temperature go to cold 1 if it stays at cold 2 for a while - I have seen it happen in other instances - and that would make the loss a bit less.)
And in the following years, when your dominion has established itself and the surrounding provinces are going to have at least some cold, you will see higher temperatures less often.

Just for fun I ran 2 games (not much, I know) with an awake dom10 pretender and in neither of those did the temperature budge from cold 3.

And we are talking about a high dominion pretender in the case of the Virtue.

Also, C3/H3 is a great way to afford O3, rather than taking Mf. And elephants are not going to fatigue out that fast against independents, which is the only place they're useful.

Look, I am all for taking luck, but the fact is that if it is steady gold income you are after, you get a lot more of it by paying for order with luck instead of temperature scales.
Ask yourself why you want O3.
Even going by your calculation of C/H 3 just representing a 12.5% cut (something that my observations do not support) O3 C/H3 would net you a 8.5% gain. O2/Misf2 will net you 14%. Understand that the effects other than income might influence quite a bit. In case you go for O2/Misf2, it makes very much sense to pay for O3 through a step in either direction on the temperature scale - not primarily for the income, but for the reduction of events.

In a similar vein the loss of supplies can hurt a lot. It all depends on how you want to play the nation.

As far as elephants and encumbrance is concerned, I tend to need an extra elephant in extreme temperatures when it comes to taking independents. I am not a very good player, so we can probably chalk it up to that, but however that may be, I need that extra elephant.

Thinking about this some more, I like luck scales, but arco has a fortune teller unit. That makes misfortune more tempting - so long as you're willing to accept you might just get shafted early.

Hm, as I said before, I find luck quite beneficial for Arcoscephale and capital only fortune tellers do not really convince me otherwise. Moreover, only LA has decent fortune tellers. The MA Astrologer only has 5% fortune teller and EA does not have any fortune telling at all.

Also, production is over-rated as Arco because their units suck. Seriously. I'd poor my money into mercenaries or independents over that crap. Elephants are about your only national troop worth buying, and then only early for expansion - and you're going to be cash limited more than resource limited. I'd take Sloth 3 every time.

I do not advocate any extra production with Arcoscephale, but calling its units crap is going to far. In every era Arcoscephale has decent units beside tramplers. Certainly better than other than very special independents.

D5 over Dom 10 is almost certainly a mistake. Awe +7 is virtually impenetrable by indies, and hard for most players through the midgame. Also, increase the chances you're fighting in dominion =)

I want to second this.
D5 is nowhere near as effective as dom 10 in case of the Virtue.