Re: Terrible Player.
As I alluded to above, the AI looks at PD. I believe it looks at PD in distinct levels, basically 1-10,11-20, 21+. I generally will put either 11 or 21 in provinces that border a so far peaceful AI. This helps convince them not to bother with me.
The reason upkeep is killing you is that you're not expanding fast enough. You don't have enough territory to to earn enough income to afford mages for the research you need. Though if you're burning that much money on PD and forts, some of it could go towards mage upkeep. Also remember that sacred mages are half upkeep. You're going to want the big guns anyway, but may affect which mages you buy for research.
This is a common problem early on. It seems like it should be easy, but figuring out what troops and formations to use to take indies with minimal losses, but without using more resources than needed is an art.
Also some of the tactics in the guides work better in MP than in SP. A lot of the raiding thugs (Sidhe Lord w/ E9N4 bless, Frost Brand & Vine Shield, for example) are designed to be cheap and effective against low PD and small forces. They'll get overwhelmed against the 100s of troops the AI has wandering around its backfield, much less its main armies.
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