Lets just stick to the rules in the OP, this is the first tourny of its type and AreaofEffects rules/setup seem pretty good to me.
Would Nieflheim be a good nation choice? Chances are several others will pick it and your chance of getting the nation may be 1 in 4 or higher, then you will have missed out on the 1st round picks. Same with Ashdod, another obvious nation choice.
Also, those are essentially, 'blitzs' completely different from the usual type of game on this forum, so I think the chances of a surprise winner are considerably increased. Essentially, compare it with snooker, over 19 frames the best/classiest player wins 90% of the time over just 5 frames it goes alot closer to 50-50.
I would for example having played vs both Baalz and Wraithlord suspect Baalz will be alot better at a blitz then a, 'normal' game. Wraithlord's strongest attribute, diplomacy (he really does have the ability to bend other people to his will, I suspect mind control
) is completely useless in this game format.