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Would starting with a temporary ban have changed the final outcome in this case, either for Sombre or for the public reaction?
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In my opinion, clearly yes. I'm very surprised not everyone thinks the same thing. The public reaction has been the damaging thing, and I can't imagine anything like the same public reaction to a temporary ban. If multiple temporary bans led eventually to a permanent ban, there would be no outcry because it would have been obvious that it was coming.
In my opinion the single biggest lesson Shrapnel should take from this is never to permanently ban someone without resorting to temporary bans first.