[Finalgenesis]

the 100 turn test is not going to be enough data base anything on, you need a lot more data points then that to draw a reasonable average.

if anything going the other direction: a hard-crunch of event probabilities factoring with average good/gem/unit gain or loss seem best, modified by events certain combo like death scale will unlock. Using Edi's event list as a base is a good start.

Note: The following includes a lot of my own assumption and extrapolation/ answer I got from various posts in this forum. I have not code-dived or tested these assumptions (Not that I'd know how), please feel free (and please do) to correct me if you see any wrong assumption on mechanics, I'd love to know.

Relevant to the hard crunch method: The more province you have the more events happens (the event generation goes through all your province until a max of 3-4 events have been generated. So having 10 provinces will generate 1 event check for each province for a total of 10, increasing effect of luck/misfortune until you consistently get 3-4 events a turn, also note that if an event is generated, the same province gets to do another event check i think, since I've seen 2-3 events on a single province assuming I didn't hallucinate).

Finally, the local luck at each province is a huge factor, even if you have luck +3, if most of your province are under enemy dominion with misfortune scale, your essentially wasting your luck scale. E.g. if you have 10 province, 4 of which has +3 luck, 6 of which has -2 misfortune from enemy dominion, 4 of your event check will get +3 luck bonus while other other 6 gets -2. Also note that you do not get +luck scales if it has enemy dominion on the same province. This is another often overlooked downside to using luck scale, having to keep your dominion up in order to use it, whereas for misfortune scale you could care less if enemy dominion brings you negative luck (hell you may even get neutral luck out of your opponent's positive luck scales).

For the hard-crunch, I think using one solo province as base is best. Things we need to know before we can do it is the base event occurence chance and good/bad event chance. I assume the good/bad event base chance is 50/50, and say if the base event occurence chance is 20% (made-up number), we have a good start. Next thing we need to know is actual % in Edi's event list, as there are rarity 1 and 2 events (2 being the rarer), what is the ratio of rarity 2 event vs rarity 1 event? (I've wanted to know this for the magic site too for a long time) Say rarity 1 event is 4 times as common as rarity 2, we can now calculate the average pay out of any given scales given a single province. 20% event chance -> 50/50 good/bad event list -> 80% rarity 1 20% rarity 2 event -> mix in modifiers like luck/turmoil scales.

If someone can give me those base % chances, I'd be happy to crunch out average pay out under some common scenarios, i envision it something like this:

3T3L3G3M scale - 48% event occurence, avg payout: 132.2 gold, 12.7 fire/water gem, 2.3 slaves ...etc, 6%heroes, 3.1% free units, 1.7% artifact lvl 2...etc

3O1G2U1M scale - ...etc

It'll be very rough calculation to be sure due to the extreme randomness and various factors like dominion / province # in an actual game, but useful nonetheless for reference.