Re: Luck/Turmoil versus Nothing.
Rereading my post above, I realized that unless you're my clone, it won't be easily understandable. I'll try to lay out my thought process in an easier to understand manner:
Event generation mechanic:
a) 4 single checks for event, roll once only (not once per prov)
-At current, this looks the most reasonable, as thejeff's testing likely show that the check is not once per prov (otherwise he'd max out 4 events a turn, or close). Likely the formula used includes province # as a factor somehow in a dimishing manner, as we can say with some confidence that we DO see more events when we had more province.
b) assign all events to random province
-Of those 4 checks, any success rolled (event generated) must be assigned to a province. Technically this should be random, though many have noticed that this tend to cluster.
c) once event assigned to province, apply luck
-So an event has been assigned to a province, luck have to apply somehow. I'm guessing the event is generated after the province has been selected. The province applies its local luck to the event roll through whatever formula.
thejeff's phenomenon:
This refers to why thejeff's testing seem to show that events occurence picks up as the turn progress. To be fair we need more data to say anything with any credibility, let's leave this aside for now. Something must be different during his t5-9 compared to t10-15 to account for the increased occurence, off the top of my head:
a) Turn #
Well obviously turn # is most visible, would turn progression be a factor in event generation? Squirreloid's testing seem to say otherwise, since his average event frq on a single province was 36% throughout without seeing thejeff phenomenon. However, it is remotely possible that turn # as a factor only kicks in when there is more then 1 province. I see this as unlikely but possible.
b) dominion
The other thing that could be different is the dominion, but I need to know whether thejeff's data had dominion spreading from Cap on T1 only before I can make any conjecture. Test with philosopher and temples may be revealing if so, maybe in thejeff's test scenario wall in dominion so it only occurs at capital, then letting it max or keeping it low to see, then maybe test if dominion being widespread changes anything.
c-z) ???
Last edited by Finalgenesis; June 22nd, 2010 at 10:54 PM..
|