Quote:
Originally Posted by chrispedersen
But jeff, a lot of this is what I said. Make a list of all available luck events in a province. this is what I call the province mask
now, you could just make a full listing of all eligible events and then roll randomly against the list. number of provinces would then not figure into it at all
The question still becomes - how do you generate the number of times to roll against the list.
Whereas, if you check All of a provinces random events, you would see what we see empirically happening - much more events for luck +-3.
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I think one of us is misunderstanding the other. Probably my fault, since I was describing how I came up with it as much as the theory itself.
Here's how it works under this theory:
First roll the chance of each of the 4 possible events, based on the capital (or pretender?) scales.
For each event generated, pick a random province. In each province pick a random event off the complete list. If the event is not possible, given the provinces scales, terrain and any other conditions, stop. No event happens. (Possibly, reroll a limited number of times.)
Thus, the more events your scales unlock, the more likely you'll actually get an event.
This should get similar effect to checking each possible event in a province with much less work and avoid some of the weirder side effects, such as events earlier in the list being more common than ones later in the list.
You get many more events for Luck +/-3 both do to the increase in chance of generating an event to start with and the increased number of events unlocked. I don't know enough about the number of events possible at different scales to guess how big the second factor is.
Does that make it more clear? Or am I still missing something?
I still think there's more going on. I'm not convinced that number of provinces doesn't play a role. I'll try to test a few more different size nations when I have the chance.
I'm also not sure about the base chances being based on capital scales. Possibly testable using 3L3T and skeptics to hold down capital dominion?
Also terrain plays a role in this. At the very least some events are only possible on land and others in the water. If there are less water events, then you should get less events in water provinces than elsewhere. This may be easier to test than events in different scales since terrain stays consistent and you don't have to worry about dominion spread.