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Originally Posted by thejeff
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Originally Posted by chrispedersen
But jeff, a lot of this is what I said. Make a list of all available luck events in a province. this is what I call the province mask
now, you could just make a full listing of all eligible events and then roll randomly against the list. number of provinces would then not figure into it at all
The question still becomes - how do you generate the number of times to roll against the list.
Whereas, if you check All of a provinces random events, you would see what we see empirically happening - much more events for luck +-3.
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Here's how it works under this theory:
First roll the chance of each of the 4 possible events, based on the capital (or pretender?) scales.
For each event generated, pick a random province. In each province pick a random event off the complete list. If the event is not possible, given the provinces scales, terrain and any other conditions, stop. No event happens. (Possibly, reroll a limited number of times.)
Thus, the more events your scales unlock, the more likely you'll actually get an event. |
Ok, we agree on most of this. The difference is that I suggested choosing an event from a tailored list for the province
you suggested pulling a random event and then checking if its applicable. I mentioned that as a possibility as well.
Essentially, logically, this means
Generate # of luck events.
Generate event for each luck event
Randomly choose province.
See if province allows event.
We know that JK likes bit masks, so the last step would just be XORing the event bit mask with the province mask and if true applying the event.
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This should get similar effect to checking each possible event in a province with much less work and avoid some of the weirder side effects, such as events earlier in the list being more common than ones later in the list.
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I think thats a weekness, because if you take luck -3 and turmoil -3 you are going to get NEVER ENDING hordes of barbarians.
If you take Death 3 and misfortune 3 - you get never ending hordes of plague events.
It can't work this way - because the generation of the event would not generate all these barbarian events, death events.
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You get many more events for Luck +/-3 both do to the increase in chance of generating an event to start with and the increased number of events unlocked. I don't know enough about the number of events possible at different scales to guess how big the second factor is.
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If you look at the results for Luck 3 vs luck -3, the both should have the same number of events. Luck -3 had 20%(?) more events. The second factor (unlocking events) has to be huge.
Also, if you look at luck 0 vs luck -3 - they are generating 2.5 times the number of events. The luck difference is supposed to be 21% more events - but it is 250%.
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I'm also not sure about the base chances being based on capital scales. Possibly testable using 3L3T and skeptics to hold down capital dominion?
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Well, I think some useful tests are:
1. Make a mode that increases the order effect. Find out at what level you cease to get luck events.
This will allow us to isolate P(e).
Once you isolate P(e) you can check what effect dominion has. Personally I'm fairly sure that dominion is only relevent to determine the luck scale in a province.
2. Do a check with 1 province. Use turmoil 3 luck -3.
Examine the maxium number of events that occur Turns 1-10, Turns 11-20, 21-30, 30+
I'm pretty sure that you will see 4 events if you capture for 40 turns post turn 30.
And I'm bummed for not getting a single thanks for all these tests!!!