[Deadnature]

In short, yes those odds look about right (but my math is terrible) for an arrow to hit a commander with all those buffs.

Some buffs in this game certainly don't stack (IE eagle-eyes and aim) but the ones you mentioned would make you nearly un-hittable for an "ordinary" arrow or missile.

Of course, if someone tried to whack your hypothetical commander with a frost brand he would only benefit from luck and (i think) the mirror-image.

Moreover, if someone tried to soul-slay him then none of those buffs would matter, just MR.