Re: seeking arrow
Just checked your SA vs TF tests, and you can't test Twist Fate by having all the Scouts in the same province because there is no guarantee that each Seeking Arror will target a separate Scout (in fact the odds say it's pretty much a guarantee that they won't). And since (from the tests, see next) it appears the TF effects does get removed after the first successful hit it negates, the next SA that targets the same unit will be without TF in the equation. (so becomes just a normal SA vs Scout test)
Just ran your test game. Only 1 Scout died, and of the 10 SA's cast at those 10 Scouts the two most important message results to take notice of are... (Orivade is the name of the Scout)
"Suddenly an Arrow...yadda yadda... but for some reasons Orivade managed to escape his deadly fate and got away with only a scratch"
then a later message in the message log
"Suddenely an arrow...yadda yadda... struck Orivade straight in the heart. He died instantly"
I interpret this as the first SA got negated by the TF, and the second SA killed him because he didn't have TF anymore.
If you want to run TF tests you need to put 10 Scouts in 10 separate provinces, as the moment you double up any then the tests become invalid. (the same slight concern as this does in theory exist over the Death bless tests I did, but there I was only looking for any evidence of the Death Bless having an effect, and I was not testing for the exact percentage.)
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