[krpeters]

So it seems that there are two things going on -- first, the likelihood of finding the rebels, and second, the number that can be killed.

The "extreme" results then are probably caused by the interaction of these two. If you're patrolling with 50+ troops, you probably have enough troops to kill all the rebels they find each round. But you still have a significant risk of not finding any. This creates the tendency for the "all-or-nothing" results we tend to observe.

I guess the best strategy then is to have enough patrollers to take out *two* turns of unrest -- whatever they miss the first turn, they'll likely crush the next.