yeah, i would have answered the same
the facts that got me convinced:
-i got 4 random events (2 in my cap: one volcano, and one blight) in my turn. i have order3, and had about 1 event on average so far per turn, so its next to impossible that its just bad luck.
-Ermor has zero interest in weakening me, so the source of the blight and the volcano must be TC or Caelum.
-Caelum doesnt have the paths for either spell, except his crone pretender, but even she cant cast two rituals.
-TC has the paths for the volcano, and i can imagine them having a mage (or hero) or a pretender for the blight.
-TC has done something similar by sending a spy and inciting revolt without being in war already, at the start of the game.
-It all happened right in the same turn, when TC notified me on cancelling our NAP3, so the intent is right there.