I think we'll know within the year with China, when the International Court rules on the territorial issues concerning their man made islands in the South China Sea. They are actively pursuing an aggressive modernization of their Navy to include Carriers and "Nuc Boats" (Subs) and we've known about work with the Army and Air Force for awhile now. The "P.I." wants us back at least to Clark AFB as they have no real Air Force to speak of and we've been giving/or selling them decommissioned ASW class ships and as I'll post hopefully soon for instance modernized M113A2 tracks (~248) and as pointed out everyone from India (i.e. RAFALES etc.) "around the horn" to Japan (i.e. Poseidon ASW aircraft.) has increased their defense budgets. If theirs a "dust up" it could happen there, however I believe the economics involved will prevent it for quite some time it would appear that China's use of concrete (Worlds leading user more then Europe and U.S. combined last year.) to build the unpopulated cities could potentially make our mortgage crisis of 2008 look like a "burp" in comparison. 60 minutes (And others.) did an excellent story on this about 3yrs. ago- something creepy about an empty city built for 150,000 being completely empty and there were about seven of them at that time.
Russia is doing the same with their military and I know Sweden was a part of this conversation, to that issue I believe the "NORDIC ALLIANCE" (If you will.) agreement was signed last month or is very close to being signed. This was brought about by Russia's involvement in the Ukraine at the beginning of that crisis. The countries involved are Sweden, Finland and Norway. The obvious problem for Russia in attacking Sweden is the other two will respond, which legally could mean NATO by default could have to get involved as the other two are NATO members as you all know. Russia wouldn't risk it. We as in the U.S. are actually building and manning bases in the Baltic states and surrounding area such as Romania. Their only real land moves are and continue to be in the Ukraine for now though the Crimea certainly solidifies their position in regards to the Black Sea. Their Navy hasn't been this active with deployments in about 15-20yrs and their sphere influence is slowly expending, though Iran this week as now Iran flush with the released funds (And interest earned on them.) told Russia "We're not buying your T-90S tanks." they intend to develop a new one they say will be more advanced.
The next big war will either be economic or driven by economics/resources and I'll take that bet any day. For Europe it's easy for Russia they just turn off the spigot to the Natural Gas Europe depends upon so heavily. Russia just did that not that long ago and Merkel (Forgive my spelling.) of Germany threatened economic sanctions and Russia backed down quickly. Why? Because like the U.S. and China, Germany and Russia have deep economic ties that bind them together. If one fails it will hurt the other-again look at the news-things aren't great right now are they?
Weapons are tools-Economics drive the engine.
Though I hope during our visit in Oct. to Ireland the "engine" here will continue to run better than Europe's because right now the EURO is below the DOLLAR but the POUND could drop a little more before we get to ULSTER and maybe Scotland for a "quickie"!
Yep another selfish American.
Well time to watch the World News and see what's going on. I hope you all have a GREAT and
PROSPEROUS (I'm such a stinker.) weekend!!!!
Regards,
Pat