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I get it our game is a game not a simulation. However, I would expect modern era aircraft with smart munitions to hit a designated target far in excess of 50%.
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I agree they sometimes get distracted by a less valuable target on the approach line especially if it shoots at them so you need to think about the approach.
Problem with air is same as artillery though in that it comes in a few turns later so you need to predict where the target unit will be & hope for the best. Unlike artillery it will normally hit something but it may not be the target you were hoping for.