[Mr_Bill_5000]

Tanks At Tokmak

Version 1.0

Steel Panthers MBT (2023) Scenario #562

Ukraine Advance against Russia Defend

Date: Mid-September, 2023

Length : 36 turns.

Large 100-hex map with many dozen units for each sides. This is a big scenario that will take a good deal of time to play.

NOTE : The scenario requires the 1Q 2023 patch to the Steel Panthers MBT game, or some of the units will not display correctly on the battle map.

Site: Northern approaches to the town of Tokmak, eastern Ukraine, on the axis of attack towards Mariupol.

The Ukrainian Spring 2023 offensive has so far made only relatively small gains despite heavy losses of men and equipment; therefore, the Ukrainian High Command is determined to break Russia's main defence line in the Zaporizhzhia front, hoping in turn to create a break-through that will allow the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) to advance on Melitopol and Mariupol in the south (and thus split Russia's occupying forces in south-east Ukraine, in half). The AFU forces have swung to the west and then changed direction, trying to capture the highway leading south to the strategic town of Tokmak.

This is the first time that Ukraine's army will have come up against the outskirts of Russia's main defence line on the Zaporizhzhia front, although the actual defence line, complete with deep minefields and extensive trench lines, lies somewhat to the south of the battlefield depicted in the scenario.

Ukraine's large and powerful strike group, which significantly out-numbers Russia's local defence forces, includes a combination of Western-supplied AFVs, supplemented by a lot of Soviet-era equipment. Its regular army soldiers are better-motivated and -skilled than their Russian equivalents; unfortunately, however, much of the Ukrainian forces are made up by poorly-trained 'Territorial' troops, who are roughly equivalent to the Russian conscript forces that they will have to fight. Off-map artillery support, including a few high-tech Western ammunition types, is available, but not in very large numbers.

The Russians have anticipated an attack in this area and are determined to make the AFU pay dearly for every inch of terrain that they recapture. They have been able to deploy a few minefields and other fixed physical obstacles, but most of these have been reserved for the main defence lines further south and there is a lot of area to cover, so these defensive preparations are not as extensive as they might be elsewhere.

Russia has a strong army in this area and will get the first shot in many cases. Putin has agreed to send reinforcements if the battle continues for more than a short while. So the task of the Russian field commander will be to hold on, until reinforcements can even up the odds.

Tactically, the map, which has been adapted as closely as practical from available satellite imagery, is interesting. The map is dominated by the north-central to south-east highway on an elevated berm, as well as by a forest that curves from the south end of the map to the center-east. Ukraine must get past this obstacle without taking too many losses. There is also a lot of relatively clear terrain, meaning that tank gunfire and ATGM launches can be deadly. Both sides should pay careful attention to lines of sight, as play testing revealed some really odd situations where units far behind the front lines somehow became vulnerable to long-range direct fire.

Winning this scenario will be a difficult task for the Ukrainian player. He should be very careful about exposing his less well-armored units, for example Leopard 1A5 or T-64 tanks, to Russian Opportunity Fire. Those Russian T-90A and T-72B3 2A46 guns ARE very well capable of a first-shot kill against even a Leopard 2A6, under the right circumstances. And even relatively weak weapons, such as 100mm guns or RPG-16 rocket launchers, can kill Western tanks if fired against a tank's side or rear armor. Don't expose your AFVs to these shots if you possibly can avoid it.

It may make sense to lead with infantry and scout units until you have detected Russian firing positions and then carefully advance, hoping that the pre-positioned Russian tanks fail their sighting check, thereby giving you the first shot. Or, try to get your ATGM teams in position and knock out Russian tanks one by one. Your infantry is superior to its Russian counterpart in 1-on-1, close-range fire-fights, so use it aggressively, but watch out for Russian artillery which can be absolutely lethal when used in sufficient numbers.

Above all else, if you decide to do an all-out attack, do it with all your forces at once, to overwhelm Russia's single-turn firing capability. Sending in your tanks and APCs one-by-one is a prescription for disaster.

For the Russians, as you are outnumbered by the Ukrainians, you will have to leverage your superiority in air power and artillery to slowly erode the AFU's vulnerable foot infantry. One way to do this is to use snipers and machine-guns to pin AFU infantry squads so they can't move, then target saturation artillery barrages against them. Also, although the Ukrainians do have some air defence it is relatively weak, so if a particular AFU tank is dominating part of the battlefield, use an airstrike to blow it up.

Be careful in risking your tanks against Ukrainian ones, especially at close and medium ranges. Even a T-64, or an older model T-72, can kill a T-90 or T-72B3 with a lucky shot against the hull front. Finally, Ukrainian Stugna ATGM launchers should be a priority target. These missiles have a huge warhead that can kill almost any Russian AFV.

Both sides have a few force-multipliers. For example, both sides have ammunition carriers, helicopter gunships and drones. Careful use of these, without exposing them to enemy attacks, will be very important during the battle. Also, apportionment of reinforcements, which make up a large part of each side's forces, is a key decision, because the map is large enough to make quick re-deployment of them quite challenging.

Will Ukraine knock out Russia's defence line and advance on Tokmak? Or will Russia's hastily-constructed defence line hold and put an early end to Ukrainian attempts to advance on Mariupol?

Play this scenario to find out!

Note : This scenario is dedicated to the brave and resilient people of Ukraine. May they find their way to a just and fair peace settlement.