OT:US don't qualify for EU membership, don't spank children, WW2 history.

[Wardad]

Personally, I am glad the world is not giving a mountain of wealth to a mad dog warmongering butcher.

Iraq was not just about oil, it was about what could be done because of it. Oil can become wealth, wealth can become influence, influence can become power. Oil can drive industry and purchase arms.

I am glad that bunch of cromags no longer have control of the oil.

It is terrible that Iraqis had to die in the war.
But, they have been dying all along because of the terrible missmanagement of this oil wealth.

[jimbob]

If you're a big buff of Samuel Huntington (Clash of Civilizations) you would suppose that the best thing the world could experience right now would be the production of a strong/leading Islamic nation who is developed enough to desire stability and prosperity. This civilizational leader would work to keep the smaller nations and Groups within it's civilizational group "in line", giving them some rope to play, but also having the ability to reel them in when they embarass the civilization on the global stage.

However, at this time there isn't a civilizational leader for the Islamic states. Iran is getting close, but doesn't have the necessary wealth and military strength, the Saudi's in Arabia have the financial capability but not the population base to ever create a military that is relevant... Indonesia perhaps in a few decades could fill this role, but it is fairly distant from the other nations in their civilization (geographically and ethnically speaking) so would have a tougher time leading the pack, so to speak.

While Huntington would suggest that unification of the civilization behind a leader would actually decrease the amount of conflict, he does note that demographically the majority of Islamic states are currently "volatile" due to their average/mean age. I think that this is a bit of a challenge to the dominant western view that these nations most desperately need to experience an elevation in their standard of living - and that such an elevation would result in an almost automatic cessation of suicide bombings and local wars. While I personally believe that an increase in their standard of living would help (c.f. the suicide bomber numbers from the ethnic Palistinians living in Isreal vs. those living in the as-yet to be declared Palistine), I do also believe that a country with a population with an average age below 25 will be far more hot headed than those with higher aged populations. If you don't believe me, check and see what the average ages of France and the Colonies were at the time of their revolutions. Oh, and the Iranian revolution too. Old guys led, but young punks did all the heavy lifting

With this in mind, I don't think the current American administrations' ideas are all that stupid. There is no probable leader of the Islamic "bloc" in the near future, and the populations need time to age, have children (responsibilites) and settle down. Making them more wealthy will not in-and-of-itself make for peace. Apeasing with land is not the only answer. I think Bush and crowd are just hoping to keep the lid on the whole thing, and let things simmer down a bit - the old fashioned way: let people grow old!

Plus the fact that Iraq just came off having a horrible dictator (so some gratitude for "liberation", at least as compared to how Iranians would have responded) and that the nation has some degree of history with the separation of church and state/government secularism makes Iraq the "most likely to succeed" middle eastern nation when it comes to having a successful democracy. (Let it be noted that there are only three democratic Islamic states at this time: Egypt, Turkey, and Indonesia, all at the edges of the Islamic geographical world. Imagine the effect of having one in the centre!!)

I think the administration is gambling on the reformation of Iraq into a democratic, wealthy, powerful, centralized Islamic leader. The Iraqi are a fierce and proud people, unlikely to follow, but very likely to lead... If only they could
i) become democratic (and thus self-interested and thus interested in stability and peace)
ii) stay democratic until the majority of the population is old enough to want a better future for their children via economic growth rather than the destruction of their "oppressor(s)"
iii) begin interacting on the international stage to the degree that they become inter-dependent with the leaders of other civilizational Groups.

Edit: Oh, and I believe the majority of Muslims would believe that "sparing the rod" is a poor way to develop one's children into mature, God-obeying members of a society. I don't think many would qualify for EU membership if non-spanking legislation is a requirement

[ July 31, 2003, 17:50: Message edited by: jimbob ]

[Thermodyne]

Dr. Friedman is a renowned debunker of the government policy as it relates to defense vs. foreign adventures. And I would not want to be in the position of debating an issue against him. But I see one weakness with his statement.

We had a war that was predicted to Last at least a year, but was finished with the major combat phase in a few weeks. Now Iraq is expected to set aside its internal differences and form a functioning government in a matter of weeks. And it is expected to do this without the use of marshal law or a general lockdown of the population. I would say that if they turn the corner in six months, and have an interim government in a year, that it will have been a success. Remember, these people have little experience with the day to day activities of running a nation, and the act of negotiating and compromising is almost unknown to them as relates to government. They were ruled by an absolute dictator and his loyal band of henchmen. It will take the good people of Iraq a while to hone and practice the skills that will be required to put a functioning government in place.

Now a word on the resistance. For a country that was defeated in a few weeks, and allowed parole for it men in uniform, Iraq is quite subdued. The level of attacks against Americans is quite low considering that the former leader is free and in possession of the majority of his loyal [sic] fighters.

[ July 31, 2003, 20:15: Message edited by: Thermodyne ]

[General Woundwort]

Originally posted by tesco samoa:
build a big dome over the usa and seal it shut for a few hundred years.

You Cannucks wouldn't know what to do with yourselves if you didn't have us to kick around, so just sit back and quit griping.

Terrorism is rare. Not an everyday occuance.

So is an outbreak of Ebola. But both can have devastating consequences. The 9/11 attacks were a picnic in the park compared to what will happen when some ecoterror/islamofascist/whatevergroupwithwhatevergreivance gets ahold of a WMD and uses it. It's just a matter of time...

[tesco samoa]

i am worse ... a canuck who is a immigrant.

[Thermodyne]

Originally posted by tesco samoa:
i am worse ... a canuck who is a immigrant.

From Ireland IIR? Orange or Green?

[tbontob]

Originally posted by tesco samoa:
i am worse ... a canuck who is a immigrant.

Directly or indirectly, we are all immigrants including the peoples of the First Nations who try to avoid admitting it.