What happens in 2025? / new tactics- new technologies

[MarkSheppard]

A lot of meaty updates in this post:

================================================== ==================

https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status...75676129349963

🇺🇦 Ukraine already has a laser weapon "Trident", - Commander of Unmanned Systems Forces of Sukharevskiy

"Today, we can shoot down Russian planes with this laser at an altitude of over 2 km. A project is also being developed to use a "drone-mother" with two FPVs."

I wonder where it is now...

================================================== ==================

https://x.com/Ch_Ru_GER/status/1868667960153567309

The #PLA is developing concepts for the teaming of #UAS & #Helicopters (like Z-19, Z-10 & Z-21) here within PLAGF Aviation Brigades. Diagrams from an academic paper on collaborative & cooperative capabilities between armed helicopters & #UAS (MALE/HALE) in combat posted on Weibo.

================================================== ==================

https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1868709434945642586

Russia has published a directory of Ukrainian FPV tactics with diagrams, and suggested countermeasures.

The descriptions are basic, but the 19 separate listings are a reminder of how flexible and valuable the FPV system has become.

Source of the images are:

https://t.me/VictoryDrones/34084

Anyway...



































================================================== ==================

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1868589519328391304

At the start of December, Ukraine's 13th National Guard Brigade, "Khartia," carried out its first fully robotic operation in the Kharkiv sector, employing an unprecedented number of robotic and unmanned systems. The operation, designed to set conditions for further advancements, utilized ground-based robots (including mining, demining, and kamikaze drones, as well as mobile turrets) and various UAVs (heavy bombers, observation drones, and FPVs).

================================================== ==================

The first semi-production High Power Microwave (HPM) weapons by Epirus -- essentially rebadged radars --- have been delivered and tested by the US Army.

Results of the Leonidas testing:



https://x.com/AirPowerNEW1/status/1868300684711313484

"They [US Army - Cap & limitation tests] tried to get as many drones as they could that we would see overseas. They wanted to get drones that might have been hardened..against EM emissions.We had zero targets that we did not take down. We were 100% effective"~Andy Lowery, #Epirus

...

"We invested ahead and delivered 4 systems in 15 months. You talked about reaching 'out to miles'. Yes, absolutely,we can do that. On our own money, we are building systems we call 'add a zero' to our baseline..We're talking 10 km..that type of range" ~Andy Lowery, #Epirus #GaN

[MarkSheppard]

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1869241376468353117

Madyar says that the effectiveness of FPVs in Ukrainian and Russian units is between 20-40%. This is when an FPV hits a target, the munition detonates, and the strike is recorded/confirmed.

Some commentary from another forum talking about the war:

The claimed success rate has doubled or quadrupled over 2023, when they were talking around 10%, so countermeasures are implied to be losing ground. If fiber optic control becomes standard and/or autonomous guidance becomes commonplace the success/confirmation rate could conceivably double in 2025 over 2024 (game changing countermeasures in 2025 seem less likely, but who knows).

[MarkSheppard]

https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1879221890335879330

Rows of Ukrainian “Ratel S” UGVs are ready for frontline service.

Context:

Back in April 2024:

https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1779221824150401336

Ukrainian UGVs (Unmanned Ground Vehicle) have moved from experimental prototypes to production.

These are the Ratel S, much in demand at the front, used for laying anti-tank mines or as a kamikaze.

[DRG]

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/n...deo-13119.html

[MarkSheppard]

https://x.com/360_Secure/status/1888368240218476940

If you watched Avdiivka assaults when UAF were running out of US 155mm shells, drones as only defense often took up to 10 hits to stop a tank, 3-5 on an IFV. Ladas [unprotected cars] it's pretty much one and you're done.

Rough values on FPV drones vs modern vehicles.

It does seem "correct" since many FPV drones are carrying modified RPG warheads, etc and they're not always pointed in the optimal direction or orientation as a warhead from an ATGM with a $10K guidance system would be...

[DRG]

Drones with RPG warheads will be in the V18 Ukraine OOB and the V18 Russian Extension OOB has a KUB-2

[MarkSheppard]

Lithuania has formally left the Cluster Munitions treaty:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-new...espite-outrage

The Lithuanian parliament voted to leave the cluster munitions convention last July, but the country had to wait six months after submitting exit documents to the UN for the decision to take full effect.

Lithuania -- a member of both the EU and NATO -- is the first country to leave the convention, which was adopted in 2008, and the first European Union country to leave a multilateral arms regulation agreement.

Poland is making noises about withdrawing from the mine treaty + cluster munitions treaty:

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/48475

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Friday he backed withdrawing his NATO country from a landmark treaty prohibiting the use of anti-personnel landmines as he briefed the parliament on Poland’s security.

Designed to be buried or hidden on the ground, anti-personnel mines often mutilate victims who are not immediately killed, with aid groups decrying their long-term impact on civilians.

The Anti-Personnel Landmines Convention, also known as the Ottawa Convention, prohibits the use, stockpiling, production and transfer of landmines.

“I will recommend a positive opinion for Poland to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention and possibly from the Dublin Convention,” Tusk told lawmakers, clarifying he was referring to treaties on “anti-personnel mines and cluster munitions.”

[Felix Nephthys]

I for one say good for Lithuania and Poland.

[MarkSheppard]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidha...-mine-warfare/



Russian map showing locations of mines laid by drones on logistics routes around Krynky
RUSSIAN TELEGRAM VIA ROY

[Dion]

Love it, designing patterns to confuse your opponent is one of the best parts of playing these games in my opinion. Reminds me of designing dungeons for D&D, designed like a maze, with the intention of finding no way out.

On a serious note, if that war is ever concluded, the civians are going to have to get used living in despair until those fields are cleared. Glad I don't live there.